Ghost's recruiting post addressed something that has been on my mind a good bit as well. I wrestled with whether or not recruiting rankings mattered for a while. Then I read this article from Athlon sports. To me, it's the most convincing argument that stars are important and rankings are accurate that I have seen.
The fact that 40% of five stars are drafted whereas only 10% of four stars, 3% of three stars, and less than 1% of two stars are speaks volumes. Sure, there are 64 times as many two stars as there are five stars and the draft only selects 252 players per year, but look at the stats. Last year, only five more two stars were selected in the first 100 selections than five stars.
Ok, now sure. The five-star to two-star difference is easily understandable. Five stars are fast, big, strong, etc. Two stars likely only had one or two offers. Let's look at the difference between four stars and three stars. A common argument is that the ranking services generally do a good job selecting who the 25 to 30 best players are in the country (five stars) but after that, it's basically like me throwing darts at a dart board (actually, it's more like GOJC throwing darts at a dart board. I own him. That guy blows.) The statistics from last draft class don't support that though. Even though there were 2.54 times as many three stars as there were four stars, one more four star was selected than three stars within the top 100 picks in the draft.
The difference between four stars and five stars selected in the first 99 picks (12 five stars and 30 four stars) can be explained based solely on the fact that there are ten times as many four stars as five stars.
Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is that there are players like Patrick Willis, Mike Wallace, etc. who defy the rules of ratings and the star system, but there are also a lot of players like Brandon Thomas, Leron King and Gary Albury.
And before you go saying that college success and NFL draft status are not the same, let me say that I agree with you. However, if a player can play in the NFL, he can play in college too.
That being said, many people I know have asked me to break down our current class and identify which players I'm happy with. I will do that quickly. Each list is in alphabetical order.
Players I'm thrilled about:
1. Craig Drummond
Players I'm happy with:
1. Michael Brown
2. Ryan Campbell
3. Tyler Campbell
4. Frank Crawford
5. Jamar Hornsby
6. Dele Juniad
7. Artice Kellam
8. Emmanuel McCray
9. Korvic Neat
10. Andrew Ritter
11. Charles Sawyer
12. Rodney Scott
13. Tim Simon
14. Bo Tillman
Players I'm ok with:
1. Logan Clair
2. Terrell Grant
3. Gabriel Hunter
4. Mike Thomas
5. Demond Washington
6. Cameron Whigham
Players I'd like to see walk-on:
1. Marcus Berg
2. Stephen Houston
3. Demarcus Knight
4. Montez Phillips
5. Eric Smiley
6. Evan Swindall
Overall, I think this class is alright. I like the fact that we got a good number of players in which I'm interested, but I sure hope we can close with a few more players with which I am thrilled. There aren't a lot of players left on our board to whom that status would apply, but I'll list a few.
1. Marlon Brown
2. Raymond Cotton
3. Bobby Massie
4. Patrick Patterson
5. DT Shackleford
If we can sign two of those, the class is good. Three and the class is great. I also hope we sign Corey Gaines and Alex Williams.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
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6 comments:
JUCO, I'm kind of suprised you're not excited about Eric Smiley. Is it because of his potential grade problems? Other than that, he seems like a big sleeper. He has great size at 6'5" and runs a 4.75 40. He has a good build for adding muscle quickly and he only has two years of football experience. If Ole Miss can redshirt him, work with the guy on fundamentals and have him hit the weight room hard, he could be a stud in a couple years.
Also, Demond Washington has a pretty nasty highlight tape on youtube. I think he could be a pretty good pickup.
Good questions.
1. On Eric Smiley, there has to be a reason that we were the only team that continued to recruit him. Could just be grades. He also said in an interview that he had a less than spectacular senior season. I just can't help but think that people saw that he had a USC offer early and got blinded by that.
2. Demond Washington could be good. Two things he has going against him: 1) He's a juco 2) he wants to play running back. I don't like either of those traits about him.
Uhhh... Demond Washington has 5 STARS!!1!!1!! That's enuf 4 a constulashun!
We definately don't need Demond at RB. I thought we had been recruiting him to play DB, but I heard him say in an interview that we are recruiting him for offense and Auburn is recruiting him for defense. I'm ready for this recruiting crap to be over with. I think we've got a pretty good shot at landing three of your top guys. I think Cotton and PPat definately. I sure as hell hope the third guy is Bobbie Massie.
I really am horrible at darts.
Grades were the only reason for Smiley not being more highly recruited. He's raw in his talents, but already amasing, according to his HS coach because of his late start in football.
Pat Patterson, Raymond Cotton and Cory Gaines are probably your best bets on NSD.
B. Massie would be a Nice pickup, but I don't think Ole Miss will get him.
Alex Williams is anyone's guess between Arkansas and Ole Miss.
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